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  • Forbes: Why Google Might "Completely Disappear" in 5 Years


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    #1 brandonbaker

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:55 AM

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/04/30/heres-why-google-and-facebook-might-completely-disappear-in-the-next-5-years

    Thought this was a fascinating article, regardless of whether or not it's true.

    The takeaway point:

    Each generation is perceived to see the world in a very unique way that translates into their buying decisions and countless other habits.

    In the tech Internet world, we’ve really had 3 generations:

    Web 1.0 (companies founded from 1994 – 2001, including Netscape, Yahoo! (YHOO), AOL (AOL), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY)),
    Web 2.0 or Social (companies founded from 2002 – 2009, including Facebook (FB), LinkedIn (LNKD), and Groupon (GRPN)),
    and now Mobile (from 2010 – present, including Instagram).

    With each succeeding generation in tech the Internet, it seems the prior generation can’t quite wrap its head around the subtle changes that the next generation brings. Web 1.0 companies did a great job of aggregating data and presenting it in an easy to digest portal fashion. Google did a good job organizing the chaos of the Web better than AltaVista, Excite, Lycos and all the other search engines that preceded it. Amazon did a great job of centralizing the chaos of e-commerce shopping and putting all you needed in one place.

    When Web 2.0 companies began to emerge, they seemed to gravitate to the importance of social connections. MySpace built a network of people with a passion for music initially. Facebook got college students. LinkedIn got the white collar professionals. Digg, Reddit, and StumbleUpon showed how users could generate content themselves and make the overall community more valuable.

    Yet, Web 1.0 companies never really seemed to be able to grasp the importance of building a social community and tapping into the backgrounds of those users. Even when it seems painfully obvious to everyone, there just doesn’t seem to be the capacity of these older companies to shift to a new paradigm. Why has Amazon done so little in social? And Google? Even as they pour billions at the problem, their primary business model which made them successful in the first place seems to override their expansion into some new way of thinking.


    To me, the question isn't so much whether Google/Bing/DuckDuckGo will exist or not, it's more of a question of whether Search-as-we-know-it will continue to thrive in an increasingly mobile landscape.

    People will always want information on "how to build a shed" or "cheapest car insurance." The question is how will corporations (e.g. Google, Facebook, Apple, etc) deliver those answers to us? And however they decide to do it, will those results be driven by the currency of the Link?

    All very interesting questions!

    Edited by brandonbaker, 05 May 2012 - 03:56 AM.

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    #2 Fishingman1

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 06:15 AM

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/04/30/heres-why-google-and-facebook-might-completely-disappear-in-the-next-5-years

    Thought this was a fascinating article, regardless of whether or not it's true.

    The takeaway point:



    To me, the question isn't so much whether Google/Bing/DuckDuckGo will exist or not, it's more of a question of whether Search-as-we-know-it will continue to thrive in an increasingly mobile landscape.

    People will always want information on "how to build a shed" or "cheapest car insurance." The question is how will corporations (e.g. Google, Facebook, Apple, etc) deliver those answers to us? And however they decide to do it, will those results be driven by the currency of the Link?

    All very interesting questions!

    Agreed I can not see any other metric than "The Link"
    Although this has a possibility to change.
    Given Groobles attitude toward link building, I can't help wonder.
    Without some sort of authority behind a site , (as we all know natural or Organic links (as Grubble Describe it) without payment or so called web spam
    Is difficult if not impossible.)
    The only other metric that could replace linking is dollars.
    Of course paid links are out !
    unless you pay the owners of the search engine , then you will appear on page 1
    Not sure I appreciated his commentary on generational changes !
    Good read thank you
    When it all turns to Crap Go Fishing

    #3 SEO-Queen

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 07:09 AM

    Well at the moment Google is delivering low quality search results and making investing in creating quality websites a headache and their PPC system is also a headache. They are leaving themselves completely open to new players and if they don't deliver better outcomes to both users and webmasters the crowd will go elsewhere.

    Give me a Google alternative and I'll go there tomorrow!

    It is quite possible that a new world could emerge as we head to 2020 where people exclusively use mobile apps?

    For example if you want information on a topic you go to the Wikipaedia mobile app. If you want to buy something you go to the Amazon app and browse their virtual store via your mobile or tablet.

    I know this doesn't cover all possibilities of the types of info people will want to obtain but maybe things might go this way if users continue to get crappy results from search engines? People will go straight to the source as it is a better use of their time (when search engines are crappy) and we all know users in the 21st century want lots of info fast!

    #4 colourofspring

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 08:24 AM

    Interesting that most searches will be made on mobile devices in 5 years and that Google haven't been able to properly monetize ads on mobile devices AND the fact that Apple could so easily switch from Google to Bing as the default search engine in their iPhones / iPads (especially if Google continue to produce poorer SERPs than Bing currently do).

    Right now, Google search ESPECIALLY sucks for e-commerce searches. The whole "remarkble content" paradigm is largely irrelevant to e-commerce. It's not about the information (the "remarkable content"), it's about the quality of the product/service. Imagine a smart phone app dedicated to e-commerce results that gave superior results to Google?

    #5 gittar1122

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:51 AM

    Interesting that most searches will be made on mobile devices in 5 years and that Google haven't been able to properly monetize ads on mobile devices AND the fact that Apple could so easily switch from Google to Bing as the default search engine in their iPhones / iPads (especially if Google continue to produce poorer SERPs than Bing currently do).

    Right now, Google search ESPECIALLY sucks for e-commerce searches. The whole "remarkble content" paradigm is largely irrelevant to e-commerce. It's not about the information (the "remarkable content"), it's about the quality of the product/service. Imagine a smart phone app dedicated to e-commerce results that gave superior results to Google?


    Agreed, quality search for any product moves around product quality and not content quality. But how a search engine can perceive product quality? If they rely on big giants in e-commerce then whats the purpose of seo? Doors for new entrants will be closed?
    Mind

    #6 Rhetoric

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:49 PM

    Nice sharing this articles. It has a great point of view.

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    #7 Mike608

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    Posted 05 May 2012 - 06:25 PM

    I hadn't seen this. Very interesting. Beyond the article there are also some pretty interesting comments. Good share.

    One entity conspicuous by there absence is Microsoft. I still think they have some gas in the tank and will be a player in some form or fashion. Whether through Bing, Skype, their mobile platform or phones.

    While Google has posted some good profit numbers recently they may have already peaked. We can only hope.

    #8 chadtkimball

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    Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:20 PM

    This was an interesting article. I guess only time will tell. It will have to fall on the heads of Google whether or not they want to be ahead of the curve. I am sure the search engines of the future will be able to process increasingly more difficult searches while making it easier and more intuitive for the user. Its not who comes out with the technology or idea first, but who does it the best.

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